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by Tom Rose

Introduction

During the last few months an increasing number of concerned people have called to ask about the so-called "Year 2000 Problem" (or Y2K). Do we think there is a real problem? If so, what are we doing about it?

When the computer age started after World War II, computer programmers saved valuable computer storage space by taking a short cut. Instead of using four digits for dates, they used terms like 58 and 62 for the years 1958 and 1962. It might seem like a trivial saving of space to us today, because today even small personal computers (PCs) have large capacity hard drives; but 30 or more years ago saving two digits every time a date was typed into a computer did save tremendous amounts of then-scarce disc space. But this economic practice created an unforeseen problem for us today.

Why did this create a problem? Because, as we approach the year 2000, many large mainframe computers are expected to recognize the short-cut numerals 00 as 1900 instead of 2000. As a result, they are very likely to CRASH and lose much of their data! And, because we live in a world of highly interconnected computers, even a relatively few computers that have not been made "Year 2000 compliant" can "infect" other interconnected computers and thereby cause many widespread computer "crashes" all over the world. In short, there can be a domino effect that could possibly be very serious. On the other hand, some "experts" are throwing oil on the troubled waters of growing public concern by assuring that the "Year 2000 Problem" is no big deal, and that the whole scare will pass with little, if any, unsettling results.

What we must keep in mind in attempting to evaluate conflicting viewpoints regarding Y2K is that each spokesman's position can be colored by whatever special interest he happens to represent. For instance, bankers might warn against members of the public withdrawing funds from their bank accounts to accumulate cash for an emergency, lest their doing so might cause a "run" on the banking system. The bankers' main objective in giving such advice, of course, is to protect the banking system at the possible expense of the individual depositor. Stockbrokers and mutual fund companies, likewise, have an economic interest in soft peddling the likelihood of a serious decline in stock prices which could be brought about by the looming Y2K problem. Large utility companies, similarly, have an interest in declaring, at least publicly, that Y2K won't cause serious interruptions in their transmission of electrical power. And the pastors of some churches, if they touch on the topic at all, advise their congregations not to worry about Y2K because only God can foresee what will happen in the future. It's not that such individuals consciously attempt to mislead people who are ignorant about the looming problem; it is just that their vision is being influenced by whatever leadership role or economic interest they happen to represent.

Three Scenarios

With these thoughts in mind, let us review three possible scenarios that have been presented by various Y2K "experts."¹

The first is that "the government" or leading "high-tech" companies will solve the Y2K problem in time, and that no bad results will occur. If this is so, then there is no need to take precautionary measures, because everything will turn out "hunky dory."

The second scenario is that the Y2K problem will not be solved in time, and that unforeseen consequences will occur. In this scenario there could be widespread breakdowns in many services (electricity, water, gas, transportation, banking and other financial services, food supply, police protection, etc.), but the interruptions will only last a few days, a few weeks, or, at the worst, a month or two, or even longer.

The third scenario is that repeated interruptions in the above-mentioned services could last for a year or two, or perhaps even longer. This could likely result in the widespread decimation of world population because of famine and disease. Also, it could easily bring about drastic changes in society--similar to the social chaos and economic decline that occurred when the Roman Empire broke up.

What Can We Reasonably Expect?

Which of the three scenarios can we expect? We can hope that scenario #1 will occur, just like we always hope that our house will not burn. But, even though we hope that we won't have to call the fire department to save the house we live in from destruction, prudent home-owners carry fire insurance, just in case! Does not prudence call for hoping for the best, but having a workable plan in reserve, just in case things turn out worse than we expect? Wise military generals usually hold some troops in reserve, just in case they are needed to meet unexpected exigencies. I, for one, gladly pay fire insurance premiums year after year, even though we have never experienced a fire! My personal evaluation, after reading much about Y2K, is that the Lord would have me take out some "Y2K insurance," just in case the dreaded scenarios #2 or #3 should occur. My wife and I have been following a plan that envisions a possible strong dose of scenario #2.² We certainly are not computer experts, and we feel there is no need to be so, but we have over the years developed a practical sense of self-sufficiency. The purpose of this essay is to share some ideas and practical suggestions for those readers who might also desire to take some precautionary measures, just in case the Y2K problem produces some serious fallout.

Recently a friend in eastern Pennsylvania called his electric utility company and asked if it was "Year 2000 compliant" and whether he, as the owner of a small business, could reasonably expect interruptions in electrical service. He was told that he could well expect interruptions, and that the interruptions might be as short as a week or possibly as long as even a year! This kind of frank warning from an electric supplier is quite unusual because most business firms have a built-in interest not to upset or panic their customers. This is why the spokesmen for banks, financial services, government offices, etc. will generally try to pacify the public by pouring oil on troubled waters. They certainly don't want to encourage people to withdraw funds from banks, lest depositors start a run on the banking system and thereby help bring about the very calamity the official spokesmen hope to avoid. What the spokesmen are actually doing themselves to protect their own families and personal interest is, of course, another matter!

The Banking System: The potential for a run on banks is always with us because of the ever-present problem of what is known as "fractional reserve banking." This, in effect, means that, even though banks always promise to have enough funds on hand to allow checking-account depositors to withdraw their funds "on demand," the bankers don't really mean what they say! Why not? Because if all depositors, or even a meaningful percentage of them, sought to withdraw their funds at the same time, there just wouldn't be enough funds to go around!

Bankers and bank regulators, of course, know this, but the vast majority of the public remain blissfully unaware of this brutal fact about fractional reserve banking. (See: Tom Rose, Economics: The American Economy, p. 184-198, 233-239 [Mercer, PA: American Enterprise Publications, 1985].)

What happens, in the event of a bank run, is this: bankers and the civil authorities then collude with each other by mandating a "bank holiday" to deprive depositors of their legal right to withdraw funds at any time the depositors so desire. In short, in such a situation it is the public who are deemed to be the "enemies of society" by desiring to withdraw their own funds rather than the bankers and bank regulators who made promises that they knew were impossible to keep! (See FDR's act of closing all banks by executive order on March 6, 1933 (Economics: The American Economy, p. 167, and The Christian Statesman, "All About Gold," July/August, 1998, pp. 11, 22.)

This hidden collusion between bankers and the civil regulatory authorities thereby allows banks to legally renege on their standing promises to pay funds out on demand by depositors. At present, the stage is already set for any incumbent President of our country to declare a national emergency for whatever reason he deems convenient. Prudent people should be aware of this fact of life and should keep adequate cash on hand when potentially volatile situations like Y2K arise. My advice is to have enough cash on hand for two to three months of expenditures. If a "bank holiday" is declared (if it happens, it will be over a weekend), cash will be king!

Possible Actions to Take

Let's assume that you have decided that the Y2K problem might just possibly cause some unpleasant consequences concerning the above-mentioned services. What steps might you want to consider taking?

Electrical Power: Everything in modern society is dependent on electrical power. The big question is, if an interruption in service does occur, how long will it last? Frankly, no one really knows! But we do know that the water supply of your home is powered by electricity, regardless of whether your supply is your own deep well or your local water utility company. If you have a deep well, perhaps the purchase of an electrical generator is a viable answer. (At the time this essay is being written, the average waiting time for a generator is 3-6 months). If your source of water is a utility, a back-up supply of water stored in plastic barrels or other containers in your basement or garage might be a good option. (Figure at least two gallons of water per person for as many days or weeks that you plan for.) Use hydrogen peroxide to sterilize the water. Some advisors who are ignorant about health matters suggest using chlorine bleach as a low-cost sterilization method, but chlorine bleach is carcinogenic.

Food in refrigerators and freezers will thaw out and start to spoil after a few days when electric power is interrupted, so a generator would be useful to keep these appliances operating (but don't forget to store enough fuel to meet your time needs). Sales literature tells how long each generator will run on a tank of fuel. A cheaper option is to home preserve or dehydrate foods for longer time storage (see below).

The question arises: How big of a generator do you need? This depends on the number of appliances you would choose to run in the event of an interruption of power service. The seller is in a position to give good advice, but somewhere in the neighborhood of 4,000 to 8,000 watts is a viable range to start your planning. Costs can run between $1,000 to $1,500 or more.

Heat: Remember that your heat supply is likely to be affected by a breakdown in electricity. You might need to consider a wood or coal stove as an emergency option.

Water: People can only live a few days without water. One ready supply for 30-40 gallons of water is the hot water tank in your basement, but this is sufficient for only a very short interruption. We already mentioned the possibility of storing water in plastic or other containers. Caution: Don't use PVC containers (like plastic gallon milk jugs) because they are likely to leach harmful PVCs into water that is stored in them for lengthy periods. Use only clear plastic containers that don't leach PVCs.

One option available in some communities is to search out a source of spring water. Caution: keep in mind the need for sterilization, as mentioned above. With regard to this point, various kinds of water purifying additives can be purchased from survival-type catalogues and health food stores. One that we are familiar with and use is Nutri-Biotics. Hydrogen peroxide or stabilized liquid oxygen are also good for sterilizing water. Another point to keep in mind, concerning spring water, is that you should not count on driving to the spring water source; there might be a breakdown in the supply of gasoline, because the oil industry is very dependent on computers.

Food: During the last two years or so the commercial dehydrated food industry has greatly expanded. Survival stores and catalogues advertise dehydrated foods in bulk and meal-sized portions, grains, and MREs (Meals Ready to Eat) for people who have become concerned about the Y2K problem and its possible consequences. MREs are handy military packets that also contain a means of heating the meals.³ The meal-sized portion foods can be purchased in packages designed to supply one person for a month, six months, a year, or even longer. At the time of this writing, waiting times to have orders filled range up to six months or longer because more and more people have become aware and concerned about the Y2K problem.

Because these foods are not to our taste and dietary needs we have gone another route. We opted to expand our garden and to grow more of our own vegetables and to put them up ourselves. Some we freeze (yes, this poses the need for an electric generator), some we dehydrate and store in vacuumed jars (tomatoes, broccoli, zucchini etc.), and for years we have been growing potatoes and storing enough to last over the winter, using the left-over sprouts to seed the next year's crop. Since this valuable source of food can be stored without treatment for many months, we plan to greatly expand our potato crop (and other crops too) during the 1999 growing season, not only for our own supply, but also for needy people who might come knocking at our door in the event that Y2K really does bring dire consequences. Even though many people we have tried to alert about Y2K have shown no interest at all in taking precautionary measures, we know that we would not have the heart to turn needy people away during a crisis (even though they might deserve to be turned away).

Another step that can be taken is to store whole grains that can be ground into flour for bread, cracked for cereal, or sprouted for fresh eating and/or for sprouted breads. Good grains for this are wheat, kamut, spelt, oats, and barley. We already include such things in our diet. (My wife bakes most of the bread we eat.) We believe that people should put up and store the kinds of food that comes closest to their regular diets, else they won't enjoy eating the foods they have stored.

Some people we have alerted about Y2K reply, "I can't store enough food to last for months. I just don't have the money! I'll just have to trust the Lord!" What such people are saying is that they are not willing to temporarily change their current life styles to take needed precautions. To them I would pose this question: "Don't you borrow money to buy a new car, and for other items too that you will use in the future?"

Most people we talk with who are taking precautions don't have the money either, but have tightened their belt to change their life-styles and have dipped into their savings to prepare for a possible emergency. The Lord, we believe, expects us to have enough wisdom to read the signs of the times and to look ahead and make adequate preparations for possible exigencies. We are to do this, not only for the self-preservation of family and loved ones (1 Tim. 5:8), which is necessary and good; but also so we can be in a strategic position to be of help to others and to be a witness for Christ through charitable works (Titus 3:8), all to the furtherance of Christ's Kingdom (Phil. 2:10-11).

Green Cash and Bullion: In the event of an emergency, it is very likely that banking regulators will limit the amount of cash that depositors can withdraw from banks, savings and loan companies, and perhaps even from money market mutual funds. This poses a need to have a supply of ready cash on hand in advance. A three-month supply is recommended, for cash is always preferred over checks in times of crises.

Better yet is a cache of gold and silver coins. During severe crises the supply of necessities becomes acute, prices skyrocket, and the purchasing power of paper money plummets. Not so for bullion. The purchasing power of gold and silver coins hold their value in such stressful periods. So, prudent individuals will take steps beforehand to have a ready supply of gold and silver coins to use if the regular monetary system breaks down.

A Theological Perspective

This brings us to consider Y2K from a theological perspective. People who hold a reformed world-and-life-view believe that God ordains everything that happens. He does so through the outworking of His will in bringing to fruition the Kingdom of Christ. Thus, in considering the Y2K problem, we should ask, "What role can I play by being part of this process? Can I bring light to others in preparing for a possible breakdown of services in society? What opportunities can I find to be an effective witness for Christ? Is He calling me to care for and protect others who aren't aware of the potential problems that might result from Y2K? If so, what steps should I take to help my immediate and extended family of loved ones, church members, and needy neighbors? Should I assure a water source, accumulate food, water, and other supplies to render aid to others? If so, how much?

Christ's Church

Christ's church is the ideal institution, besides the family, to look ahead and to plan for potential crises and then to provide physical and spiritual help to Christian believers and others in the local community. This is not something that properly falls in the bailiwick or province of the civil authority, regardless of the current misguided public opinion that tends to relegate all matters of social concern to the civil government. And why not? Because the Church is a voluntary association that renders aid to others without penalizing or burdening others in society. The civil authority, on the other hand, is the coercive agency in society; thus it is absolutely impossible for the civil government to render aid to some individuals or groups in society without shifting the burden of such aid onto others through taxes.

This is an important truth that generally escapes the majority of people, but think on it. The God-given role of civil government in society is not to render aid and succor to those in need, but simply to render justice and assure tranquility to all so that the individuals who comprise society can go about in peace while serving their Lord and Master, Jesus Christ (Rom. 13:3-4; 1 Tim. 2:1-2). This means that the rendering of help to others must be done by voluntary organizations and institutions that exist in the non-coercive sphere of society. Unlike the civil government, which occupies the coercive sphere of society and thus mandates that citizens do or do not do something under the threat of using explicit force in case of their failure to obey; Christ's church, business firms, and other voluntary institutions of society operate solely through voluntary persuasion in bestowing benefits throughout society.

But, sad to say, up to the present time relatively few church leaders whom I know of have taken adequate steps either to alert or effectively stimulate their congregations about the wisdom of preparing for a potential crisis. Very little has been done about storing emergency supplies of survival necessities (water, food, fuel) in the event of a possible social and economic breakdown.

Do some dreaming with me: Suppose that Y2K does cause substantial segments of society to be adversely impacted by widespread computer malfunctions which, in turn, cause related interruptions in the supply of water, food, fuel, and other daily necessities.⁴

Suppose also that supermarkets run out of food, and that masses of citizens start to feel the pangs of hunger and want. During the Great Depression of the 1930s I was just a boy. I well remember tramps (as they were called in those days) coming to the kitchen door, hat in hand, asking for something to eat. There was little stealing and pillaging in those days because people trusted each other and were of a mind to help others in need. We were poor ourselves, but my mother never turned a needy person away from our door.

Can you imagine a similar peaceful scenario occurring today in the late 1990s? If so, you are a dreamer who is not at all familiar with some critical underlying forces that now exist in society! Today, unlike the peaceful 1930s, more than 30-percent of our population exists wholly or partially on the public dole. Millions and millions depend on food stamps, welfare payments, and other forms of government subsidies. (This also includes business firms, from small proprietorships to large corporations!) Some of these are second- and third-generation welfare recipients spawned by President Johnson's so-called 'war on poverty' which began in 1964, and they have been conditioned to believe that they have a right to live at other people's expense. They have failed to become self-sufficient because they have been cruelly seduced by political charlatans to exist on 'free' government handouts. Thus, in the event of a serious crisis, their very existence is at stake! Our inner cities are full of millions of people who have unthinkingly become political pawns of high-place politicians and government bureaucrats in Washington, D.C., as well as in our State capitols. A dependent population is easily manipulated, to their own disadvantage, for the benefit of high-place political demagogues and their hidden allies. This situation poses a great threat to the continued peace and safety of society.

The Need for Guns

Let me now introduce, as delicately as possible, the dire need for citizens to insist on invoking their Second Amendment right to personally own and bear arms. In short, our political leaders themselves have created, through decades of easy welfare payments, a potentially explosive situation which could easily ignite into instant social chaos.

Let us ask this very disturbing question: How will long-term welfare recipients react to a possible widespread economic and social crisis that deprives them of their unearned incomes? Will they come, hat in hand, like the tramps of the 1930s, peacefully looking for a meal to help them on their way? Not likely! Rather, aren't they more likely to feel cheated out of their 'right' to receive their accustomed unearned incomes and thus come ready to take with force what they have come to regard as their just due? Some years ago television news programs showed 'welfare mothers' forcefully raiding and pillaging government welfare offices in Chicago because they were unhappy with the amount of their welfare payments. That was but a small warning of the kind of open chaos which is likely to occur today in the event of a breakdown in the welfare payment system!⁵

Some months ago I received a phone call from a fine Christian gentleman. He asked what preparations, if any, I was making relative to the Y2K problem. At the end of our conversation, I mentioned the need for home- owners to have guns and ammunition on hand in case of possible social chaos. His immediate response was, 'Oh, I'm a Christian, I would never shoot women and children!' Then he hung up. Since I didn't have his phone number, I couldn't call him back to explain my point.

Shooting women and children, of course, is not the point of being armed! Rather, the crucial issue is to be armed and ready to defend the women and children who have sought help under our umbrella of protection! Guns and ammunition might be much needed to protect helpless women and children from marauders who would likely take ready advantage of them if not prevented from doing so by an armed citizen. So, yes, dear Christian brethren, as much as we might not like to face this reality of living in a sinful world, it might well be necessary to use guns in our service to Christ in succoring those in need. This is not a pleasant topic to discuss in this essay, but, in my opinion, it is a necessary one to deal with. Also, think on this: The possible plunderers who might attack your home, and those whom you are helping during a period of chaos, might not simply be a lawless rabble gone amok; they might be members of the civil government who themselves have become lawless. Think of what happened a few years ago at Ruby Ridge, Idaho; at Waco, Texas; and even more recently, at countless SWAT-team raids by the BATF, the FBI, and other now-lawless government agencies! Remember, the founding fathers of our American Republic insisted on the individual right of citizens to own and bear arms, and they protected this right by adding the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution. They did this, not so that American citizens would be free to hunt small game or to plink at tin cans, but to guarantee their God-given freedoms from tyrannical rulers and other marauders.

Is There Really an Emergency?

Now, it is very possible that the preparations we and others are making concerning Y2K might be in vain and that no dire consequences will transpire. This is our hope! But, again, prudence demands that preparations be made, just like people pay premiums on home insurance. Let's assume that concerned people do proceed to store water, food, and other supplies and that no crisis comes about. Wonderful! But does this mean that all the stored grains and foods and other items amount to an unproductive investment? Not in the least! If no real crisis results from the Y2K problem, it simply means that far-sighted persons who have prepared have simply stored provisions ahead of time which can then be used little by little in the future. At worst such persons will lose interest on the money it took to purchase the goods in advance, unless prices rise in the meantime. In such a case, the investment might very well turn out to be profitable in the end anyway

In summary, the Y2K problem presents a range of possible scenarios, from little or no disruption, to potentially very serious chaos. Each of us is thereby challenged to carefully weigh the arguments of the alarmists and of the soothsayers and then to prepare as the Lord leads. The purpose of this essay is not to discuss in detail every aspect of how to make adequate preparations for the Y2K fallout. Rather, its purpose is to challenge readers to be aware of the growing problem, to evaluate the possibility of a breakdown in economic and social services, and to make necessary preparations for the degree of adversity that each reader foresees. Finally, everything should be put into context with regard to each person's perception of God's hand in the outworking of history. Our role in life as Christians is to be always in His service in furthering the building of Christ's Kingdom. We must be ready to reach out to family, to our fellow church members, and to our friends and neighbors as Christ's ambassadors on earth.

[© Tom Rose, 1998]

Tom Rose is retired professor of economics, Grove City College, Pennsylvania. He is author of seven books and hundreds of articles dealing with economic and political issues. His articles have appeared in The Freeman, published by Foundation for Economic Education, Irvington-on-Hudson, NY; Christian Economics, published by Christian Freedom Foundation, Buena Park, CA; The Christian Statesman, published by National Reform Association, Pittsburgh, PA; and in many other publications. For ten years he wrote a weekly syndicated column published by newspapers such as The Santa Ana Register (CA), The Indianapolis Morning News (IN), The Manchester Union Leader (NH), The Gazette-Telegraph (CO), The Odessa American (TX), and others. He and his wife, Ruth, raise registered Barzona cattle on a farm near Mercer, PA, where they also write and publish economic textbooks for use by Christian colleges, high schools and home educators. Rose's latest book is Reclaiming the American Dream by Reconstructing the American Republic published by American Enterprise Publications, 177 N. Spring Road, Mercer, PA, 16137. Phone: +1 724 748 3726; Fax: +1 724 748 5373; Website: American Enterprise Publications

Endnotes

1. I use quote marks ('experts'), not to denigrate the expertise of spokesmen holding various theories about Y2K, but simply to stress the fact that we are now in uncharted waters and that there are no real experts who can accurately predict what will happen as the year 2000 approaches.

2. We don't feel that it is possible for us to adequately plan for a full-scale scenario #3 but that our plan can be extended, through self-sufficiency measures, to care for our own family and loved ones, as well as helping a few needy fellow church members and neighbors. Also, it is possible for us to warn and encourage neighbors and church members to make preparations for themselves. Sadly, it has been discouraging to see how proffered warnings and advice have been ignored and even laughed at! Many people with whom we have talked have given little or no thought about the Y2K problem, and they definitely do not want their ignorance or unconcern disturbed with dire-sounding possibilities. By the time such friends and neighbors finally awaken to the growing threat, if they ever do, it will be much too late to take effective precautionary measures. They will be like the foolish virgins in the Bible who failed to have their lamps full of oil, (Matthew 25:1-9). The Bridegroom will come, and they will find themselves outside looking in.

3. One caveat about MREs is to consider the sterilization process they are subjected to in order to provide such a long storage life. Radiation, for instance, extends shelf life, but it does so at the expense of lower-quality food value.

4. The best way to determine what you will need during an emergency is to consider what your regular daily needs are: food, medical items, paper products, pet supplies, etc.

5. The incumbent presidential administration has done nothing to alleviate the current problems which might lead to the chaotic situation we are discussing in this essay. It is almost as if the administration is inviting an opportunity for a crisis to develop. This would then provide an opportunity to declare a 'national emergency' and thereby institute martial law to suspend the Constitution and citizens' constitutional protections. While this idea may sound somewhat 'off the wall' to some readers at the time of this writing, it is something I suggest that readers keep in mind, for the heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked (Jeremiah 17:9).

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